The Game as it stands..

Before entering into specifics an understanding of the status quo is important. As it stands today there are three possible outcomes.A Congress lead-UPA government, a BJP-lead NDA government or a Third front victory. As of now the UPA have their noses ahead but its too early to call. The key to victory in these elections lies in the formation of alliances based on idealogies so to speak. It might be interesting to note that the rate of rejection of state governments has fallen sharply in the last decade.So ruling state parties have an upper hand statistically.Although the effect of anti-incumbency might be profound in case of states like AP, Orissa , Maharashtra etc where the state governments are nearing the end of their terms, states with recently formed state govts enjoy the advantage of having won recently. This is the perfect platform for these parties to stake a claim for power at the centre. Seat-sharing problems ,one of the very few problems our 'netas' are concerned about, just got even more complicated.

States which need to be closely watched from a UPA perspective are AP and TN. Possible losses to Third Front parties need to be assessed in these states. Also the SP alliance in UP is one that is crucial after the fall-out in Bihar with Lalu. Things are not looking up for the NDA in TN but they have a gained in Gujrat,Jharkhand and Assam. So,the game is still evenly poised. The dark horses will be those parties which will be a part of the Third Front. The votes split by them in this election could be crucial. One feature of a multi-party democracy that makes it interesting for observers is its uncertainities.The Third Front parties can possibly distance themselves from the others post elections (or even before going in for polls!) for a share in the central government.To quote a cliche ' There are no permanent enemies or friends in politics!' and in the present scenario our politicians might just prove it right.